應該很多人一覺醒來發現美股又鬧脾氣了,市場上關於FED的利率決議新聞滿天飛,各家解讀也都不同,與其看一堆二手消息,那不如我們就來直接看看官方的新聞稿到底說了啥吧!
原文可見以下連結
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation
首先先來看這篇
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
關於降息部分文中提到
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent.
根據其法定授權,委員會力求促進最大限度的就業和價格穩定。鑑於全球發展對經濟前景的影響以及緩和的通脹壓力,委員會決定將聯邦基準利率的目標範圍降至2至2.25%(2 to 2-1/4 percent)。
同時在記者會中,鮑爾也有提到:「我們認為,這次降息基本上屬於貨幣政策的中期調整 (midcycle adjustment) 政策的性質,這不是一系列降息循環的開始。」
"We’re thinking of it essentially as a midcycle adjustment to policy,"
這也是今天很多新聞提到的鷹式降息,被認為是美股下跌的元兇,大家認為聯準會態度還是太鷹,尤其是中期調整(midcycle adjustment),這個詞,讓許多人解讀為,這不是一個降息循環的開始,也就是說未來可能並非大家原先所預期的,會有一連串的降息
所以可以理解為什麼昨天美股會有這種走勢了,不過不一定要太悲觀,我們從文中也可以看到一些好消息。
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending has picked up from earlier in the year, growth of business fixed investment has been soft.
自聯邦公開市場委員會於6月召開會議以來收到的資訊表明,勞動力市場依然強勁,經濟活動以適度的速度增長。近幾個月平均就業增長穩健,失業率仍然很低。雖然家庭支出的增長從今年早些時候開始增長,但商業固定投資的增長一直疲軟。
可以看得出來,聯準會這次會做出這種"鷹式"降息決定,是因為國內的經濟依然穩健成長,也就是說就基本面來看,美國依然發展得不錯
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.
在確定聯邦資金利率目標範圍的未來調整的時間和規模時,委員會將評估與促進充分就業及2%對稱通膨目標相關的經濟形勢,不管是已實現的、還是預期的經濟情況。該評估將考慮廣泛的資訊,包括勞動力市場狀況的衡量標準,通膨壓力指標和通膨預期,以及對金融和國際發展的數據。
接下來看這篇
Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation另外美國也提前結束縮表,8月1日起,Fed持有的美國公債到期本金將繼續投入美國公債市場,而持有的機構債券與機構抵押擔保證券(MBS)到期本金也將繼續投入市場。
Effective August 1, 2019, the Committee directs the Desk to roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities and to reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities received during each calendar month. Principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities up to $20 billion per month will be reinvested in Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding; principal payments in excess of $20 billion per month will continue to be reinvested in agency mortgage-backed securities. Small deviations from these amounts for operational reasons are acceptable.
「縮表」是指聯準會縮減自身資產負債表規模,升息和縮表都是聯準會收緊貨幣政策的重要工具,升息會直接推升短期利率水準並影響到長期利率縮表則會直接推高長期利率,推升企業融資成本,從而令美國金融環境收緊。
而同時降息及停止縮表也就代表因應目前商業固定投資的增長一直疲軟,或者是整體通膨率、與不計食品及能源的(核心)通膨率仍低於2%所做出的一些提振措施。
最後,鮑爾在記者會中表示:「我們從未把政治因素納入貨幣政策的考量,也不會推行貨幣政策來證明聯準會獨立性,推行政策是要盡可能接近我們法定目標。」
意思就是:川普你別想影響我們(FED)的決定!!!
總結:就目前FED的觀點來看,美國的經濟依然健康,聲明中也沒有提到美國經濟成長有降溫的任何內容,可以見得就基本面與長期來看,美國經濟仍會保持穩定與健康的發展,所以對本次的利率調整造成的跌幅並不用太過緊張,投資人要關注的就是經濟數據是否在未來出現惡化,其他的就套用伯格先生的話:「Stay the course!」
本文章並沒有推薦任何投資標的,單純是個人的一些觀察與見解,為作者自行查看相關資料後整理而成,資料之正確性以各官方公告為主,任何人觀看本文之後,而有任何投資行為,自行對所有後果負責。
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